Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria shows the the storm looks like a squashed question mark?

Jeff Masters of www.wunderground.com is giving Tropical Storm Maria a 50/50 chance of degenerating into a tropical disturbance later today:

“Tropical Storm Maria doesn’t look much like a tropical storm–on the latest satellite imagery it looks like a squashed question mark instead of a spiral. The surface circulation center is very poorly defined, and moderate wind shear of 15 – 20 knots has really done the Lesser Antilles Islands a big favor by ripping up Maria. It is doubtful this storm will generate any sustained winds of tropical storm force in the islands, and it is a 50/50 proposition that Maria will degenerate into a tropical disturbance and become ex-Tropical Storm Maria later today. Martinique radar shows heavy rains from Maria are mostly east of the islands, and the thunderstorms are not well-organized into spiral bands. The wind shear affecting Maria will probably last through Sunday. By Monday, wind shear is predicted to fall enough so that Maria could potentially organize again. However, the storm is expected to be far from land when that occurs. Bermuda could see a few rain showers from Maria on Wednesday, and Maria may be a threat to southeast Newfoundland late next week.”

Read his full blog here

Hurricane Irene’s evolution from tropical wave to Category 3 storm is shown here in time-lapse imagery from the GOES-East satellite starting on August 19th and ending at 1715z on August 24, 2011.

Russell said he was getting “disturbing reports” from the two islands, each of which has a population of several hundred, but that he was not yet able to get a full assessment.

Authorities were also expecting major damage on the islands of Rum Cay, Eleuthera and Cat Island, which were all expected to have full and extended exposure to Hurricane Irene’s 120 mph (193 kph) winds.

“That can be devastating for some of those islands,” Russell said.

Forecasters said Nassau, on New Providence, would see tropical storm force winds no greater than 65 mph (104 kph) because the storm track had shifted and it was not getting the direct hit that many had feared. The island is the most populated, with more than 200,000 people, and is a major tourist destination.

This storm was only the third since 1866 that had crossed the entire length of the island chain and Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham said the country was bracing for extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure. But he predicted few casualties overall.

“As a general statement we do a fair job of managing hurricanes so personal injuries, we hope, will not be substantial,” he said in an interview with The Associated Press. “Property damage, vegetation, public infrastructure, yes, but as a general statement we would hope that personal injuries would be minimized.”

Still, the storm could cause problems. Trevor M. Basden, senior deputy director of the country’s Department of Meteorology, said New Providence could expect to be buffeted with fierce winds until Thursday evening. “That is quite of bit of time to be experiencing tropical storm force winds,” he said.

Authorities set up emergency shelters throughout the country but most locals were expected to stay in their own homes or with friends and family while visitors stayed in the handful of hotels that remained open for what was expected to be a rough next few days.

As darkness fell in the capital, and the first strong winds and rain began to lash the city, the streets were largely deserted. Earlier, the capital buzzed with last-minute preparations as people gathered what last-minute supplies were still available and shop owners boarded up their windows. Nassau, which surrounded by sparkling greenish-blue ocean, is known to flood even in heavy rain so the storm surge was expected to make many roads impassable, especially in the colonial downtown.

Many visitors weren’t waiting around to find out what would happen and fled the country, waiting in long lines to catch planes before the airport closed. Some tourists had no choice but to leave since smaller hotels abruptly closed and larger ones were booked up with Bahamian residents looking for a place to ride out the storm. Others flying out simply didn’t want to take their chances with what could be a major storm.

“I’ve been through one hurricane and I don’t want to see another,” said Susan Hooper of Paris, Illinois, who was cutting short a trip with her husband, Marvin, to celebrate their 23rd wedding anniversary. “My main concern is what if something happened to the airport. How would I get home?”

Maureen Fallon, a 39-year-old consultant from Annapolis, Maryland, was forced to abandon a trip with six friends through the Bahamas archipelago on a 47-foot (14-meter) catamaran. They tried rerouting the boat as the storm developed but gave up less than halfway through after the U.S. State Department issued a warning to travelers.

“I’m pretty bummed,” she said. “But there was just no way. It was way too dangerous.”

Meghan Stark, traveling with her mother and 5-year-old son, arrived at the airport exhausted and frustrated after their hotel closed and told all guests to leave, less than 24 hours after first telling them the storm was not likely to pose a major threat to Nassau.

Stark, a college student from Baldwin, New York, arrived in the Bahamas on Monday for a weeklong stay that had already been delayed after a storm in New York postponed their flight for two days. Staff at their hotel, Sandyport Beaches Resort, initially reassured them that the storm wasn’t a major danger.

“We had asked them when we got here about the storm and they said, ‘Don’t worry about it, these things blow over,’” she said.

Less than 24 hours later, Stark and her family found their room keys not working and the staff telling them to clear out. They spent the night racking up an expensive cell phone bill trying to book a flight out. At one point, they considered and rejected the option of staying in a refuge being set up in one of the larger hotels. On Wednesday morning, they were forced to leave early.

By Wednesday night, Irene was centered about 150 miles (245 kilometers) east-southeast of Nassau with winds of 120 mph (195 kph). Hurricane force winds extended about 60 miles (95 kilometers) from its center.

Irene was expected to become a Category 4 hurricane by Thursday as it passes over the northwestern Bahamas en route to the eastern U.S. coast, said the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

Irene barreled through the Turks and Caicos Islands late Tuesday as a Category 1 hurricane, blowing off some roofs, flooding roads and downing power lines, said Emily Malcolm, district commissioner for South Caicos island.

Puerto Rico, which also was hit by Irene, is still struggling with heavy flooding that has stranded motorists and affected several neighborhoods. Dozens of landslides have been reported and 765 people remain in shelters, Gov. Luis Fortuno told a news conference Wednesday, two days after he declared a state of emergency.

On Tuesday, a 62-year-old woman died at a hospital after trying to cross a swollen river in her car near the capital of San Juan, police said.

In the Dominican Republic, flooding, rising rivers and mudslides have prompted the government to evacuate nearly 38,000 people. Authorities said a 40-year-old man was killed when floodwaters destroyed his home in Cambita, about 42 kilometers west of Santo Domingo, and a 42-year-old Haitian migrant drowned in a surging river near the city of El Seibo.

Juan Manuel Mendez, director of the Central Emergency Operations Center, said more slides were likely in coming days because of days of intense rain from the storm system.

Impoverished Haiti was left “relatively unscathed,” with only isolated damage from flooding, the United Nations said.

Associated Press writers Danica Coto in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Ezequiel Abiu Lopez in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, APTN senior producer Fernando Gonzalez in Baracoa, Cuba, and Megan Reynolds in Nassau, Bahamas, contributed to this report.

Geographic Reference: 135 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico

Movement: West-northwest at 18 mph

Max Winds: 60 mph gusting to 70 mph

Forecast: Irene is moving to the west-northwest and this will take the center very near St. Croix this afternoon and evening. This motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. On Tuesday and Wednesday, forecasters think Irene will slow near the eastern tip of Cuba and turn more to the northwest. This heading should last through Friday, which will take Irene into South Florida Thursday evening. It is looking less likely that Irene will cross into the Gulf of Mexico. There is a bit of uncertainty in the timing of the northwest turn and for this advisory the forecast confidence remains below average after Wednesday.

Environmental conditions remain very favorable for further development. Forecasters have indicated that Irene will exhibit steady intensification into a hurricane until it interacts with Hispaniola, which will cause weakening to a tropical storm. Once Irene moves off of Cuba, conditions are expected to be favorable for re-intensification. Irene could regain hurricane intensity by the time it makes landfall in South Florida on Thursday evening. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains low mainly due to the uncertainties in how much weakening Irene will undergo over Hispaniola.

Expected Impacts on Land

Leeward Islands: Heavy squalls are expected to last into tomorrow morning, but with steady improvement east of the Anegada Passage tonight. 4-8 inches of rain are likely.

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Squalls are approaching the islands and are expected to last through early Monday. 8-12 inches of rain are likely, with higher totals possible across the elevated areas of Puerto Rico. These rains are likely to cause flooding and mudslides. Tropical storm force winds are also likely.

Dominican Republic: Squalls are expected to start affecting the area on Monday morning. Up to 8-12 inches of rain are expected in the Santo Domingo area through Tuesday morning. These rains will likely cause flooding and mudslides. Hurricane conditions will be limited to a small area of coast in near the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic.

Turks and Caicos: Squalls can be expected on Tuesday with 1-3 inches of rain and isolated totals to 5 inches.

Bahamas: Squalls can be expected on beginning on Wednesday with 2-4 inches of rain and isolated totals to 6 inches.

Jamaica: Squalls will likely affect the area on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Irene forms August 20

Current Location: 14.9N/58.5W

Geographic Reference: 468 miles south east of the Virgin Islands

Movement: West at 22 mph

Max Winds: 50 mph gusting to 65 mph

Organizational Trend: Slowly increasing

Forecast

A recon plane inside Tropical Disturbance 31 has found a close surface circulation along with winds of 50 mph. Therefore, the disturbance has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Irene. Irene is forecast to continue moving a little north of due west for the next several days. This would take the center of Irene across the Leeward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean before sunrise tomorrow and about 100 miles south of St. Croix by mid afternoon tomorrow.

Irene should pass very near or over the southern Dominican Republic early on Tuesday then begin a gradual turn to the west-northwest and northwest toward eastern Cuba on Wednesday night.

The forecast confidence drops to below average after Irene nears southeastern Cuba Wednesday night. Though the model consensus continues to point toward the southern Florida Peninsula with a landfall on Thursday night or early Friday morning, it is quite possible that the northwest turn is delayed and Irene could pass just west of the southern Florida Peninsula with a final landfall along the Florida Panhandle next weekend. Forecasters won’t be more sure of when the turn will occur for another day or so.

The intensity forecast is another challenge. Though Irene has winds to 50 mph presently, its center is very poorly organized. Forecasters think that Irene may become a hurricane prior to passing near or over the southern Dominican Republic on Monday night. But its intensity beyond that point will depend greatly upon how much land the center crosses over the following 36 hours. Once in the Florida Straits or southeast Gulf on Thursday afternoon, the storm may gain strength quickly over the warm water. But its intensity thereafter will depend on whether it strikes the lower Florida Peninsula or has an extra 24 or more hours offshore before striking the Florida Panhandle.

Confidence in the intensity forecast is low.

Expected Impacts on Land

Lesser Antilles: Squalls will produce periods of heavy rain and wind gusts up to 65 mph through Sunday morning. 4-6 inches of rain are likely.

U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Squalls are expected to move over the area by Sunday morning and last through early Monday. 2-5 inches of rain are likely, with higher totals possible across the elevated areas of Puerto Rico.

Dominican Republic: Squalls are expected to start affecting the area on Monday afternoon. Up to 6-9 inches of rain are expected in the Santo Domingo area through Tuesday morning.

Southern Florida Peninsula: Squalls may begin impacting the Keys and the lower peninsula by early afternoon on Thursday. It is too early to estimate rainfall due to the considerable track uncertainty that far out.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Currently, no direct impact of tropical storm force wind is expected west of 88W longitude. However, if the storm was to track in the direction of the northwest Gulf, then squalls could impact the deepwater areas offshore southeast Louisiana as early as Friday afternoon.

Tropical Disturbance 31

Current Location: 14.3N/53.6W

Geographic Reference: 780 miles south east of the Virgin Islands

Movement: West to west-northwest at 21 mph

Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph

Organizational Trend: Slowly increasing

Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm Within 48 hours: 80 percent

Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm Beyond 48 hours: 95 percent

Forecast Track Confidence: Average, due to good model agreement and stable steering level winds.

Disturbance 31 continues moving quickly to the west-northwest, but has slowed slightly. On this track it will move through the Lesser Antilles by early Sunday morning. Once in the Caribbean it will continue on a west-northwest track, passing south of Puerto Rico early Monday, and between Cuba and Jamaica late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

The associated thunderstorm activity is increasing this morning and Disturbance 31 is becoming a little better organized. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development over the next few days, and development chances have increased to 80 percent over the next 48 hours. Development chances beyond 48 hours have increased to 95 percent. If the system does develop, there does not appear to be much that will keep it from reaching hurricane strength. If it does become a hurricane, then that would probably not occur until Tuesday morning when it is passing near or south of Haiti.

As the system continues to converge closer to the Lesser Antilles the anticipation of strengthening is also likely therefore the Antigua Meteorological Office at short notice may issue Storm Watches or Warnings if there is a drastic strength. A hurricane hunter aircraft is expected to fly into the system this afternoon.  With the current events unfolding residents are asked to monitor the system for any sudden changes and make the necessary preparations in the event the system is upgraded before it passes the territory.

Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011

A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 – 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 – 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L’s forward motion will slow to 10 – 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean,

Disturbance 26 is located near 16.5N/43.5W and is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph. This disturbance remains disorganized today, but environmental conditions will become more favorable for development over the next few days. This system will continue moving to the west-northwest and will be north of the northern Leeward Islands by late this weekend.

Disturbance 27 is centered near 11.5N/28.0W. Movement is to the west at 15 mph. Development of this disturbance is possible as well as it moves westward across the Atlantic over the next several days. On its current track, it would be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week.

Disturbance 29 has been added near 24.0N/55.5W and is moving to the west-southwest at 10 mph. There is only a slight chance of development as it continues moving to the west-southwest over the next few days. It could merge with Disturbance 26 by the end of the weekend or early next week.

Defence Minister Peter MacKay announced the assistance package Wednesday at CFB Trenton. It will include three Griffon helicopters and 65 Canadian Forces members to conduct search and rescue activities through to November.

More than a dozen tropical storms have been forecast to hit the Caribbean nation over the coming months and Jamaica’s Office of Disaster Management and Emergency Preparedness has cautioned that people living in flood-prone areas and along the coast are particularly vulnerable. Floods and landslides are always a threat, as are rough waters that can cast sailors and fishermen adrift.

The Jamaican Defence Force, the country’s military, does not have the ability to carry out search and rescue functions or medical evacuations.

The assistance was made by the Jamaican government and follows $2.1-million in funding from the Canadian International Development Agency for a three-day disaster simulation exercise that involved the Jamaican health minster, the police, military and other local agencies.

In August 2007, Hurricane Dean hit the south coast of Jamaica and sent locals heading for higher ground as vicious winds ripped roofs off of houses and torrents of rain wiped out roads.

In September 2004, Hurricane Ivan, a category five storm, left 18,000 people homeless and killed more than a dozen. The worst recorded storm to hit Jamaica dropped almost a metre of rain in some places and blew in furious winds of 180 km/h.

This isn’t the first time that the Jamaican and Canadian militaries have worked together. Canada helped develop a Jamaican military aviation school in 2006 that trains pilots throughout the region.

Canadian special forces soldiers were training Jamaican commandos in 2009 when a Canadian flight packed with tourists was hijacked in Montego Bay during a visit to the country by Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Though no Canadians took part in the raid on the aircraft, they watched closely as their colleagues disarmed the gunman and ended the early morning hostage situation without a shot being fired.

Original story: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1037419–canadian-military-to-swoop-into-jamaica-for-hurricane-season

According to forecasters a well above-average probability of major hurricane landfall is expected for the United States and Caribbean.

On June 1 the scientists estimated this year´s hurricane season will have about nine hurricanes, 16 named storms, and five intense hurricanes developing to at least Category 3 strength, or higher.

A comparative official report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) highlighting its official Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook also revealed that this year´s season can expect a 65 percent chance of an above normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. Gray and Klotzbatch have maintained their predictions in saying that the season is expected to see about 80 named storm days, 35 hurricane days and 10 intense hurricane days.

On the 1st day of June the Department of Disaster Management began its Hurricane Preparedness Campaign, under the theme “Get Prepared, Be Prepared”, with a message from Governor Boyd McCleary outlining the key related issues.

Throughout the season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, the DDM will continue to partner with all local media to issue public service announcements and other types of information to provide guidance for residents as they continue to make their preparations for this hurricane season. In the coming weeks the DDM, in collaboration with the VI Standpoint, will launch the annual Hurricane Guide, which will include topics on hurricane preparedness, flooding and landslides as well as information about other hazards and how to prepare for their possible impact.

All residents and visitors are urged to pay close attention to the information being broadcast or printed and to ensure that they remain in a heightened state of readiness for the next four months.

For more information on Hurricane Preparedness please visit the DDM´s website at www.bviddm.com or visit our offices at #3 Wailing Road, MacNamara, Tortola.

Original article can be found at http://www.bviplatinum.com/